Pick Six: NCAA Football Week 5

After going roughly .500 last week, we’re poised to make some good money this week. Week by week we’ve been figuring teams out, and now we’ve got ’em. Look out Vegas. Since the start of the season, I’ve gained confidence in Georgia, Clemson, and even USC, despite not covering last week. On the other hand, there are plenty of teams I have decided to completely abandon that I once believed in. Looking at you Notre Dame, Miami, and Michigan State. Then, there are the teams who are so unpredictable that I have a hard time betting on them or against them. That includes the likes of Texas A&M. Man, they have burned me every week this season. Texas now has to join that list, too. No consistency.

We’ve got some great in-conference matchups this week. We are in for not only some entertaining games, but we have identified Six games where we love the match up and feel confident in winning a pretty penny, or two. There’s also a Dog Of The Week, where we’ll show the underdog who is certainly going to come out on top. Let’s get to the picks!

Michigan @ Iowa Line: Michigan -10.5

Michigan failed to cover the spread against Maryland last week as they couldn’t get anything going in the air. I think that was a fluke and won’t happen again. They offense has way too much fire power. They were leading the country in points per game heading into last week. On the other sideline, we have Iowa. They cannot score. They’re a defensive team. I think Michigan’s offense is better than Iowa’s defense, and think Michigan’s defense is significantly better than Iowa’s offense. I don’t see this going Iowa’s way. They simply can’t keep up.

Pick: Michigan -10.5 Michigan 30 Iowa 16

Oklahoma @ TCU Line: Oklahoma -6

We knew the Sooners were going to lose at some point. Now that it’s out of the way they can get back to doing what they do…win football games. I don’t think TCU is a scrub by any means. I just don’t see Oklahoma losing back to back games. Both teams are capable of putting up points. I think the Sooners defense is something that gives them the edge in this game, and I’m not sure if I’ve ever said that before?

Pick: Oklahoma -6 OU 34 TCU 27

Michigan State @ Maryland Line: Maryland -8

I have lost all hope in the Spartans. I thought Thorne’s experience combined with a solid defense could make them contenders. I was wrong. I own that. The loss to Washington was ugly, but understandable. The loss to Minnesota was a season killer. It’s done. Thorne is done. Season over. On top of all that going wrong for MSU, now they have to face Maryland. They put up a great fight against Michigan last week and had them scared for most of the game. They beat the spread. On top of that, the QB for Maryland? Taulia Tagovailoa. Tua’s brother. No doubt his performance is going to be dedicated to his brother who went down with a horrific head/neck injury Thursday night against the Bengals. He’s going to ball out for his brother. I can already see it happening. The narrative is just too prime not to bet on. I don’t love the spread, but this is a gut feeling.

Pick: Maryland -8 Maryland 33 Michigan State 20

NC State @ Clemson Line: Clemson -6.5

I started the season very low on Clemson, but they have been slowly building back the trust. I think I’m ready to put money on them again. Granted, NC State is a very good team who could absolutely pull off the victory, but Clemson has looked too solid the past few weeks. They can put up points and get stops. They also have the better talent and better recruits. At some point that has to matter. I think this will be a very exciting game, probably one of the best games of the week. Hopefully it can be a one score game…in favor of Clemson.

Pick: Clemson -6.5 Clemson 27 NC State 20

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina Line: North Carolina -9

Virginia Tech choked to open the season, and UNC has a QB who can throw the ball around and put up points. I don’t know much on these two teams outside of that but feel good about the spread. UNC is the better team by far and the spread isn’t double digits. That’s all I really need to know.

Pick: North Carolina -9 UNC 34 VT 24

Stanford @ Oregon Line: Oregon -17

I feel good here. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and think the Ducks can come out with a big win. The spread is a little higher than I’d like it to be, but at home I think Nix and the gang can pull it off. I’m more concerned about the defense getting stops. The offense will do its thing, will the defense show up this week? My money is on yes.

Pick: Oregon -17 Oregon 42 Stanford 20

Dog Of The Week: Wake Forest +6.5 against Florida State. Another candidate for game of the week…depending on which version of these teams we get. Florida State has a high ceiling but a low floor. Wake Forest is more consistent. I feel like we’re entering Week 5 and FSU still hasn’t had that typical FSU loss, yet. It’s bound to happen. I think this is the week. I like Wake’s chances to win this game, and feel comfortable about the spread, too. I just can’t see it being a blowout loss. I think it will be high scoring and close all game. Maybe even an OT game. I’ll take the 6 point spot and ride with Wake Forest on this one. The Seminoles are bound to slip eventually. I’m ready with my net.